The oil market is becoming increasingly numb to the array of changes that Donald Trump is trying to make now that he's US President again.

Trump spent his first weeks in office railing against OPEC, seeking an end to the war in Ukraine, and threatening tariffs against some of the main crude suppliers to the US. All those things could have major consequences for supply and demand in the oil market.

But rather than causing price swings, the futures market is flat-lining. A gauge of implied volatility for benchmark Brent futures - a measure of how far traders expect oil prices to swing - fell to its lowest level since July this week.

"The oil market is showing signs of disorientation in the face of the sheer volume of new policy stances," Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote this week. "Faced with so much information and the realisation that a single social media post could move the market significantly in either direction at any time, many traders have responded by reducing their risk exposure."

To be clear, an underlying lack of volatility predates Trump's return to the White House. Even unprecedented sanctions against Russia by the Biden administration quickly lost their impact.

The OPEC+ producer group continues to keep barrels off the market, which has the twin effect of lowering supplies enough to keep a floor under prices, while simultaneously meaning there is plenty of spare capacity available to meet unexpected disruptions.

Although prices briefly rallied when Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil imports, they have since fallen as the US attempts to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. -Bloomberg