"Global refining margins could fall as well. While margins have been normalising since the Ukraine War started, they could go even lower under sanctions relief for diesel," the analysts added.Oil prices were broadly steady on Monday, as investors monitored developments over a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could ease the sanctions that have disrupted energy flows, while a weaker dollar and reduced Caspian supply curbed any selling.
Brent crude futures edged up 12 cents to USD 74.86 a barrel at 1526 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 20 cents to USD 70.94 a barrel.
"Should sanctions relief allow it, we believe Brent crude oil prices could drop between USD 5 and USD 10/bbl if Russian barrels suddenly do not need to make a long journey to India or China, and more supply is suddenly made available," BofA analysts said in a note.
"Global refining margins could fall as well. While margins have been normalising since the Ukraine War started, they could go even lower under sanctions relief for diesel," the analysts added.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believes he could meet very soon with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The U.S. and Russia are preparing for initial talks in Saudi Arabia in the coming days. The prospect of a global trade war also capped oil prices after Trump last week ordered commerce and economic officials to study reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on U.S. goods.